During the period 2012-2015 with US sanctions, Swedish exports to Iran were down to one billion kronor per year. When the nuclear energy agreement came into force, exports rose rapidly to SEK 4 billion a year.
"We will now see a sharp fall again, says EKN's country analyst Victor Carstenius. It is unfortunately impossible to be anything but pessimistic. It will be virtually impossible for banks to have any relationship with Iranian banks and it will be very difficult to make payments. And thus trade will slow down.
"The EU will make efforts to protect the interests of European companies, but it will be difficult," says Victor.
EKN complies with EU and UN sanctions and is not directly affected by US sanctions. Insofar as it is possible to find effective payment routes and carry out business, EKN can continue to guarantee the payment risk in exports to Iran.
Over the last two years, EKN has issued guarantees for transactions to Iran to a total value of 5.3 billion kronor and currently has commitments amounting to 1.7 billion kronor. These payments are expected to be followed through. The sanctions allow payments in transactions already entered into.