The reason for downgrading all of these countries boils down to more difficult economic conditions in the wake of the recent commodity price decline. This is reflected particularly in the debt of the countries, which has increased both in monetary terms and in relation to GDP and exports. The local currencies have depreciated, which has also made it more expensive to repay external debt.
“The next couple of years will be tough for the commodity-producing countries in the region,” says Rebecka Lundgren, EKN country analyst.
Angola, Nigeria and Zambia together account for more than 40 per cent of the cumulative Sub-Saharan GDP, thus impacting the growth outlook of the entire region. However, the Sub-Saharan African countries are moderately integrated economically and financially.
“Although the outlook is challanging for the region’s commodity producers, there are other countries with very good growth outlooks, such as Ethiopia, the Ivory Coast and Kenya,” says Rebecka Lundgren.
EKN's guarantee exposure totals SEK 38 million for exports to Namibia, SEK 786 million to Angola, SEK 1,507 million to Zambia and SEK 2,155 million to Nigeria.